Rick Beeman: Bahraini Uprising: Fuel to the Fire

This situation in Bahrain is getting worse. Since I am now living away from Bahrain, I feel like I can objectively review the situation from afar. I am keeping close tabs on the proceedings from my many facebook friends especially John. (Somehow a reporter from a Russian Magazine got a hold of me to get my viewpoint of the events from Bahrain. It was flattering.) The violence that is happening in Bahrain now is very real and getting more and more treacherous. I still receive emails from the US Embassy in Bahrain warning of the threats and demonstrations. They are advising all Americans to stay in their homes until further notice.

Objectively speaking the Royal Family and the military seem to be really making matters worse. Common sense tells you, you don’t quell an uprising by attacking unarmed protestors. With the use of force there are bound to be accidental deaths and that is only going to inflame the situation and further entrench the opposition. Instead of dispersal you are galvanizing your opponents. Your own countrymen. In the worldwide PR game (which is incredibly important in today’s media) Bahrain has come across as the bully. Being aggressive against the opposition historically has come back with mixed results. In the pre-internet era the protests at Tiananmen Square was squashed quickly and effectively by the hardline Communist Government. More recently the uprisings were quelled in Iran too. But the emergence of facebook and social media are going to make these examples fewer and far between. The current Government of Bahrain is in a very bad way right now. The slogan is “Business Friendly” Bahrain. Isn’t that an extreme dichotomy right now. Bahrain was a great place to live while I was there, but this conflict for tourism and business is going to set them back for 20 years or so. The highlight of the year for the Bahrainis Internationally speaking is the F1 race. Bahrain has visitors from all over the world descend its borders. Bernie Ecclstone the head of Formula One just announced the race in Bahrain was in jeopardy for March. I would be shocked if they don’t cancel it soon. Its too much of a risk for them right now. Bahrain is a great great country. I have made documentaries detailing its history, but unfortunately, this conflict is going to be a black eye that will take many months if not years to heal.

Washington has denounced these attacks and this is quite important. The US is faced with a quandary who to support. Ideologically the States always falls in the line of pro-democracy. However, the ruling Khalifa family is very tight with the US and the UK. The Fifth Fleet is evidence of that. If the US wanted to, it could flex its muscle and squash the uprising in a heartbeat. Fortunately, they have not done that. I pray that they don’t become militaristically involved. I don’t believe its their place to do that. Let the Bahraini’s figure it out for themselves. As long as there is not genocide happening we should stay out. If the Shia prevail and topple the government there are real and immediate concerns that Bahrain would become a province or close Ally of Iran. With Iran’s potential of nuclear arms they are the US’ “threat du jour” The US’ key presence in the region would be compromised and quickly come to an end if Bahrain becomes associated with Iran. The fifth fleet could relocate to Qatar or even the UAE and still be able to operate effectively. There are some that argue that the US should have no presence in the Middle East at all, but I do not fall inline with that camp. There are some radicals over here in the Mid East still and left untended to, could do major international damage. Like it or not, the reality is that the US has become sort of the human rights police, a more militant arm of the UN so to speak. As an American I’m grateful for that as I believe they do more harm than good. There is a lot of chatter about their involvement with Afghanistan. But my good friend and co-worker is leading a humanitarian effort through the UN to help rebuild Afghanistan. Even with the US military presence, Afghani suicide bombers are still blowing themselves and their country men up. Without our presence it would be a lot worse.

So back to Bahrain, the US would love for the Khalifas to stay in power but by the aggressive action of the military, politically its getting harder and harder for the US to stand behind the rulers. Not only do the Khalifa’s run the risk of ostracizing their own people but they are going to lose their most powerful allies in the process. The Government/Military of Bahrain will tell you that this is a Sectarian (Religious) conflict. But there are increasing reports stating that Sunni’s are crossing over to join with the Shia in the protests against their government. If that is the case, then it seems like its only a matter of time for the Bahraini monarchy to fall. With their increasingly aggressive efforts to maintain control they are only hastening the end result, domestically and internationally.

Jennifer asked me to write about how this conflict could eventually affect us here in Dubai. Apparently there are a lot of well-meaning American friends advising her to steer clear of the Middle East. While Bahrain is only a 45 minute plane ride away, the conflict might as well be a world away. In my opinion there is no way that this sort of disturbance happens in the UAE for several reasons. First the Emiratis for the most part are very happy with their government. They hold the late Sh. Zayed in such high regard. They treat him like the Americans treat George Washington. Second and most importantly, Emiratis only account for about 15% of the population of the UAE. The rest are ex-pats from the Philipines, India, US, Canada, and Russia primarily. If the expats don’t like what is happening in the government, all they have to do is leave. Thirdly the UAE looks to directly benefit form these regional conflicts by increases in tourism and economy. If people are wary of doing business or vacationing in Egypt or Bahrain, Dubai offers a convenient and cheap alternative. So Im not worried about my safety here at all. I still believe Im called by God to be here for this period in my life. He will protect me. My faith is in my God, not the military surrounding me.